Commentary The January jobs report printed at a moderate 467,000 new jobs, well above the consensus estimate of 150,000. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4 percent, unchanged. The seasonally adjusted U-6 Unemployment, at 7.1 percent, was down 2/10th of a percentage point from December, and down 4 percentage points since last year. Analysis: Details and Outlook from Stuyvesant Square The January jobs report surprised most and signaled, first, that the Federal Reserve is likely to drive rates higher. That said, the effect of the annual benchmarking should not be ignored. As related by the Bureau of Labor Statistics at the end of the report, today’s numbers are “benchmarked to reflect comprehensive counts of payroll jobs for March 2021. These counts are derived principally from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which counts jobs covered by the Unemployment Insurance (UI) tax system. The benchmark process results in revisions …
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