Commentary The escalation of tensions in Ukraine has reminded us of something many investors seemed to have forgotten: geopolitical risk. Sanctions and the inevitable drop in trade have proven to generate a significant negative impact on the different economies involved. We know from the 2014 Ukraine crisis that the economic hit is severe and persistent. The economic hit of sanctions is undoubtedly highest for Russia. As the New Atlanticist reports: “The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated in 2015 that Western sanctions and Russian countersanctions reduced Russian real gross domestic product (GDP) initially by 1–1.5% and that prolonged sanctions would lead to an even larger cumulative output loss. In 2019, the IMF estimated that sanctions reduced Russia’s growth rate by 0.2 percentage points every year in 2014–2018.” The impact on Russian citizens is wide-ranging, even when the sanctions are targeted at individuals and state banks. The most obvious impact is the loss …
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