Commentary Recent macroeconomic data from the United States should worry us. Amid the reopening and the biggest fiscal and monetary stimulus in recent history, and with all the possible tailwinds from policy decisions, consumer confidence has plummeted to the lowest level since 2016. Retail sales have fallen sharply again in July, and the employment or industrial production data are far more than disappointing considering the level of stimulus and that GDP has returned to pre-pandemic levels. The use of industrial capacity, at 76 percent, is 4 percent below the average for the 1972 to 2020 period, and the labor force participation rate, at 61.7 percent, has been stagnant for 12 months and at mid-1970s levels. The total savings rate as a percentage of disposable income has almost vanished, from 33.8 percent in April 2020 to 9.4 percent in June 2021, almost back to pre-pandemic levels. Let’s put it in the …
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