News Analysis When Rep. Ron Kind (D-Wis.) announced Aug. 10 that he wouldn’t seek reelection, he became the eighth House Democrat to decide either to retire or seek a different office in November 2022. Congressional incumbents always start a reelection campaign with major advantages over challengers, so losing eight of them at this point in the political cycle is ringing alarm bells among Democrats and encouraging growth in Republican optimism. An Aug. 19 analysis by the website FiveThirtyEight was among the loudest of the alarms, saying “these departures are still an early warning for them, especially considering Democrats hold a narrow 222-to-213 seat majority, meaning Republicans need a net gain of just five seats to capture the chamber.” Add to that factor the historical trend of a White House incumbent’s party virtually always losing seats in the first off-year election after gaining the Oval Office, and President Joe Biden’s plunging public approval numbers, …
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