Commentary
In February, we started writing and talking about stagflation. Stagflation is the rare combination of high inflation combined with negative economic growth. We expressed the point of view in this paper that inflation was understated by approximately 100 percent and was actually in the mid-teens. Further, we noted that once you adjusted fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) for inventory restocking and the amount that inflation was understated, actual GDP growth was negative. We concluded that instead of stagflation being a future downside possibility, it was something that the United States was actually experiencing and that the truth was being hidden by dishonest or misleading government statistics.
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