Commentary The attack on 9/11 that killed almost 3,000 people in New York was a surprise to U.S. intelligence. Likewise, the rapid fall of Afghanistan over the last weeks has been a surprise, to the point where the United States and G7 allies, who meet Tuesday to discuss Afghanistan, are dependent upon Chinese, Russian, and Taliban largesse in order to continue Kabul’s evacuation. Surprise and dependency, in war as elsewhere, leads to failure. The 2021 fall of Afghanistan is widely seen as a U.S. and NATO failure, and will have four long-term market effects: 1) upward global pressure on defense expenditures; 2) upward global pressure on energy costs; 3) more supply chain decoupling; and 4) increased domestic contestation in the United States and Europe about decoupling from China. The United States and NATO got into, and lost the war, not only due to intelligence failures, but due to a lack …
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